Our treatment focused specifically on schools and employers because they have been at the forefront of vaccine mandates in the United States and the federal government’s legal authority to issue broad mandates is much more limited than in most other countries.
WARNS GROWTH DECELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY MANDATES VACCINE FULL
Respondents assigned to the mandate treatment were told that after full approval, some schools and employers plan to mandate vaccination. Respondents assigned to the incentive treatment were told that after full approval, some schools and employers plan to offer financial and scholarship lotteries to increase vaccination rates. The final two treatment groups explore the effect of incentives and mandates on individual attitudes. Comparing attitudes across this treatment and the control group (which received no information about the likelihood of the vaccines receiving full FDA approval in the near future) affords an estimate of the effect of full FDA approval on vaccine confidence, although neither offers an additional policy intervention to actively push vaccination. Those in the approval-only treatment group were also told only that after full approval some employers and schools hope to see an increase in community vaccination rates. Subjects in the three treatment groups all received the same initial prompt informing them that the Food and Drug Administration was likely to grant full approval to the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines later in the year.
Those in the control group received no information. Respondents were randomly assigned to one of four experimental groups. This study employs an original survey instrument and embedded experiment on a nationally representative sample of 1,245 adult Americans to understand how COVID-19 vaccine mandates affect attitudes toward vaccination and willingness to engage in a range of social and economic activities. Given this unique context, we seek to understand reactions toward such mandates. As a result, most vaccine mandates in the United States are imposed either at the state or local level or by private entities for their employees. Even President Biden’s more limited plan to mandate vaccinations for large employers drawing on statutory authority to protect workplace safety was struck down by the U.S. Although mandates are a global phenomenon, a distinguishing feature of vaccine mandates in the United States is that the federal government lacks clear constitutional authority to mandate vaccination outside of specific circumstances, such as for the armed forces. Dozens of countries have implemented vaccine mandates either for particular jobs (e.g., home care staff in England, France, and Greece, teachers in New Zealand) or for all adults (e.g., Austria, Indonesia, Turkmenistan). Įmpirical study of public reaction to COVID-19 mandates is limited, an important oversight given the prevalence of mandates enacted around the world. For example, while childcare/kindergarten vaccine mandates against Hepatitis A appear to have significantly increased vaccination, vaccination rates actually declined after the implementation of New York City's measles vaccine mandate, and studies of Australian childhood vaccine mandates showed no statistical change in public behavior post-intervention. Empirically, past studies have found mixed evidence of mandates’ efficacy and effects. If so, then the expanded use of incentives to vaccinate may be a more effective policy route. Some critics worry that mandates may further entrench anti-vaccine sentiment and exacerbate inequities if economically disadvantaged groups opt out of daycares, schools, or employment rather than vaccinate. These mandates have prompted fierce debate. More than two centuries later, governments faced a public health crisis in the form of COVID-19 and many began implementing an array of mandates to boost vaccination rates. The government first made vaccinations free, but facing continued reluctance, later made them mandatory. In the early 19th century, England produced the first vaccine in history, protecting individuals against smallpox, one of the most significant causes of death in Europe.
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